This Policy Brief compares the effect of a future vaccine based on two scenarios:
- Current trends in treatment and prevention coverage continues
- UNAIDS Investment Framework is fully implemented
The data indicates that an HIV vaccine can make a substantial contribution to lowering the number of new HIV infections under both scenarios. Investing in both the implementation of the Investment Framework and the development and roll-out of a vaccine provides the greatest potential for path towards ending the AIDS pandemic, especially with a highly effective vaccine.
The potential impact shows that a preventive AIDS vaccine of just 50% efficacy given to 30% of the population in low-and-middle income countries could avert almost 20% of all infections between 2020 and 2030 (under either scenario).
This paper argues that a partially effective AIDS vaccine as part of a comprehensive program of treatment and prevention could significantly reduce the number of new HIV infections in women. Even at low levels of population coverage and vaccine efficacy, an AIDS vaccine could prevent almost 3 million infections in women over a 10-year period, while the highest impact scenario shows that an AIDS vaccine could prevent almost 6 million infections in women over the same period.
The analysis shows that an AIDS vaccine could save billions of US dollars in averted costs of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision alone between 2020 and 2030. This figure is between 11 and 75 billion USD over 10 years (depending on how the AIDS pandemic and the response to it will evolve between now and 2020, and depending on the vaccine characteristic and the level of vaccinations achieved).
The potential impact shows for example in a scenario in which HIV/AIDS programming is fully scaled up to the targets presented in the UNAIDS Investment Framework, that an AIDS vaccine could save between $11 billion and $23 billion in averted costs of ART provision alone between 2020 and 2030. For a scenario in which HIV/AIDS programme continues as it is today, the same vaccine could save between $36 billion and $75 billion over these 10 years.
Courtesy of the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative.
Photo by Juliana Thomas.
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